“The main reason for the change in our liftoff call is that we now expect core PCE inflation to remain above 3% — and core CPI inflation above 4% — when the taper concludes,” Goldman’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, wrote in a client note.
Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to announce plans to start tapering the central bank’s $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities at the end of their two-day policy meeting on Wednesday.
“Large surprises on the virus, inflation, wage growth, or inflation expectations, could prompt a revision, but we think the hurdle for a change in either direction is high,” said Hatzius.
Goldman Sachs also expects a second interest rate hike in November 2022 and two rate increases each year after that.
In the wake of Friday’s inflation data, fed fund futures fully priced in a quarter-point tightening by July 2022 and another rate increase by December.
