NEW YORK (Reuters) – The dollar eased against its major peers on Monday, but remained near its 16-month high hit last week on the back of inflation concerns, as investors looked forward to fresh data this week on the state of the U.S. consumer.
The dollar got a boost on Wednesday when data showed U.S. consumer prices rose last month at the fastest annual pace since 1990, casting doubt on the Federal Reserve’s view that price pressures will be transitory and fueling speculation that interest rates will be lifted sooner than previously thought.
But demand for the greenback softened on Friday when data showed consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest in a decade, due in part to the surge in inflation.
The dollar index, which measures the currency against six peers, edged down 0.027% to 95.107.
“Following the consumer sentiment data, attention will be firmly on U.S. retail sales tomorrow to see whether the decline in consumer morale is being reflected in retail sales,” said Fiona Cincotta, Senior Financial Markets Analyst at City Index.
Retail sales are expected to have increased by 1.1% last month, according to a Reuters poll.
Investors will also be watching any comments at a virtual summit between President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Monday.
Gains in the heavily euro-weighted dollar index have also been helped by a decline in the single currency, with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde continuing to push back on market bets for tighter policy.
Supply-chain bottlenecks and soaring energy costs are slowing euro zone growth and will keep inflation high for longer than had been thought, Lagarde told the European Parliament’s committee on economic affairs on Monday. Euro zone inflation will ease next year, she said.
Lagarde “reiterating the dovish outlook of policy makers” kept the euro in check, said Jane Foley, head of FX Strategy at Rabobank London.
The euro was 0.05% weaker against the greenback at $1.1437, having touched a 16-month low of $1.14315 earlier in the session.
Versus the Swiss franc, the euro slid to 1.0526, its weakest level in 18 months. The euro was last down 0.13% at 1.05315.
Interest for the euro/Swiss franc cross has grown sharply, said Simon Harvey, senior FX market analyst at Monex Europe, “because the Swiss franc is a natural hedge against inflation”.
Swiss National Bank governing board member Andrea Maechler said modest Swiss inflation, at an annual rate of around 1.2%, was capping the franc’s rise. But she reiterated the SNB’s commitment to currency market interventions designed to limit, if needed, the effect that the Swiss franc’s strength has on Switzerland’s export-orientated economy.
In Britain, the pound rose 0.24% to $1.3442, ahead of a data-heavy week with employment, inflation and retail sales numbers expected to provide clues about whether the Bank of England will raise rates in December, as expected by markets. On Friday, sterling touched its lowest level this year versus the dollar.
